This weekend we bring you Sigrun’s interview with Gabriel Sterne, head of global macro research at Oxford Economics, who gives us his view on where the global economy is at, and where it might be headed next.
Populism has now become a big issue in developed as well as emerging markets, of course, and Sterne describes Donald Trump as “the consummate populist – he ticks the boxes in virtually all areas” of populism. The Trump administration’s stand-off with China is one to watch, he says, because “fundamentally the ingredients are there for an extended disagreement.
“China has a huge trade surplus with the United States,” Sterne says, but “on the other hand it’s intervening to stop the currency from depreciating. So the notion that China could be labelled as a manipulator is on very weak grounds.”
Sterne also introduces us to the term ‘Italification’, which he warns could be more severe than the threat of ‘Japanification’ that has haunted developed economies over recent years. Nevertheless, he says, the world is moving out of the shadow of the 2008 crisis.
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